Tobacco Now, What Next?
-- by Bruce Bartlett
It is now clear that all
the furor over tobacco is just about the money.
To be sure, there are legions
of anti-smoking zealots who want to regulate smoking out of existence.
And there are many moderates concerned about smoking among children and
the effects of secondhand smoke. But by themselves, these groups could
not have forced the tobacco companies into a settlement with the states
or compelled Congress to act against them. Only the prospect of vast sums
for greedy politicians and huge fees for sleazy lawyers could have achieved
this result.
Indeed, so rapacious were
the politicians that $368 billion in tobacco money wasn't enough for them.
They demanded an additional $138 billion, for a total of $506 billion,
at which point the tobacco companies walked away from the table. However,
having let the genie out of the bottle themselves, by agreeing to the original
$368 billion deal, the tobacco companies are in a very weak bargaining
position. They may win a few concessions, but it is a foregone conclusion
that they are going to pay heavily for their foolish decision.
Having seen how easily a
big industry can be intimidated and extorted for big bucks, the interesting
question is: What industry will the politicians and lawyers go after next
in their unending quest for money? Following are some potential candidates.
Liquor. The liquor industry
is an obvious target. It is rich. It can be accused of multiple crimes,
from alcohol-related traffic deaths to cirrhosis of the liver to targeting
children. The states can make the same argument they made against tobacco
-- that they need to be compensated for alcohol-related health costs --
and Congress can easily raise existing federal liquor taxes to finance
the latest round of pork-barrel spending. And of course, the lawyers will
do all the dirty work -- for a healthy cut, of course. In short, the liquor
industry appears to be ripe for the picking.
On the other hand, consumption
of alcohol is much broader and more widely accepted than smoking. Also,
consumption of hard liquor has been falling for years, and it will be much
harder to demonize wine and beer consumption the way cigarettes were. However,
the industry's deep pockets may still make it the target of choice.
Guns. Gun makers have been
under assault for years, and lawyers have already had some success in holding
them responsible in court for gun fatalities. Further, anti-gun zealotry
almost equals that of anti-cigarette fanaticism. However, defenders of
the right to bear arms are much better organized at the grass roots, and
the
gun industry in the United States is not large enough to raise the kind
of money that makes politicians and top law firms salivate. This may be
enough to give gun makers a pass for now.
Microsoft. The Justice Department
already has Microsoft, a huge and immensely profitable software company,
in its sights for alleged violations of the antitrust law. Now, the states
are looking for a piece of the action as well, and a number of attorneys
general are preparing to bring their own lawsuits. Although it is almost
impossible to find an ordinary consumer who believes he or she has been
injured by Microsoft in any way, the possibility of a huge payoff may be
enough to propel an anti-Microsoft effort forward.
Caffeine. On Sunday, The
New York Times reported that researchers are concerned about growing consumption
of caffeine-rich coffee and soft drinks by teenagers, causing all manner
of health problems. It draws a direct parallel between caffeine and nicotine
addiction. Will Starbucks be the new Philip Morris?
Originally Published
April 15, 1998
[http://www.creators.com/opinion/focus/bartlett.asp (Nov 30, 1998)]
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